Overview
ChurnIQ assigns every active subscriber to a segment based on three calculated scores: Value, Commitment, and Vulnerability. Each score is calculated from a set of sub-scores derived from the subscriber's behavioral and transactional data, then combined into a final segment label.
Segments update continuously as subscriber behavior changes. A subscriber can move between segments over time.
The Three Scores
Each score is an average of its component sub-scores. Sub-scores use a 1 to 5 scale, where higher generally means stronger on that dimension. Subscribers with a churned status receive a score of 0 on most components.
1. Value Score
Measures how much revenue a subscriber generates relative to your overall subscriber base.
| Component | How it is calculated |
| Customer Lifetime Revenue (CLTR) | Percentile rank against all subscribers. p80+ = 5, p60+ = 4, p40+ = 3, p20+ = 2, below = 1 |
| Subscription Lifetime Revenue (SLTR) | Same percentile logic, applied to the current subscription only |
| Offer period | Yearly = 5, Quarterly = 3, Monthly = 2, other = 1 |
The final Value Score is the average of the three components for active subscribers.
2. Commitment Score
Measures how deeply embedded a subscriber is in their relationship with the platform.
| Component | How it is calculated |
| Churn history | Never churned before = 2.5, has churned before = 5 (counterintuitive - a subscriber who has churned and returned has demonstrated re-commitment). 0 if currently churned. |
| Days since activation | Percentile rank of how long they have been active. p80+ = 5, p60+ = 4, p40+ = 3, p20+ = 2, below = 1 |
| Number of transactions ever | Percentile rank of total transaction count. p80+ = 5, p60+ = 4, p40+ = 3, p20+ = 2, below = 1 |
The final Commitment Score is the average of the three components, excluding any that score 0.
3. Vulnerability Score
Measures how exposed a subscriber is to churn in the near term. Higher vulnerability score means higher risk.
| Component | How it is calculated |
| Subscription lifetime (inverse) | Shorter active lifetime = higher vulnerability. p80 or below = 1, increasing up to 5 for very long-tenure subscribers. Note: this dimension is inverted - a shorter lifetime means higher vulnerability. |
| Days until next renewal | 1 day or less = 5, 2 days = 4, up to 7 days = 3, up to 15 days = 2, up to 30 days = 1.5, beyond = 1 |
| Cancellation pending | The whole vulnerability score = 5 |
The final Vulnerability Score is the average of the active components. However, active cancellation will always give a final score of 5.
Segment Definitions and Score Ranges
Segments are assigned in priority order. The first matching condition wins.
Churned Subscribers
Subscribers who have not a single active subscription, but used to have at least one active in the past.
These are excluded from the dashboard.
| Segment | Condition |
| Hibernating | Churned more than 90 days ago |
| Churned | Churned within the last 90 days |
Active Subscribers
Subscribers with at least 1 subscription active.
| Segment | Value | Commitment | Vulnerability | Description |
| Champion | 3.65 or above | 3.65 or above | 3.0 or below | Highly loyal, high spending, secure |
| Vulnerable VIP | 3.65 or above | Any | Above 3.0 | Valuable subscriber but signals show churn risk |
| Future Champion | 3.5 or above | 3.0 or below | 3.0 or below | New subscriber with strong early spending signs |
| One-Hit Wonder | 3.5 or above | 3.0 or below | 3.6 or above | High value but low commitment and high vulnerability |
| Committed Regular | 3.0 or below | 3.6 or above | 3.0 or below | Loyal and stable but contributes little revenue |
| Shaky Supporter | 3.4 or below | Any | 3.6 or above | Loyal but fragile, low revenue and vulnerable to churn |
| Emerging Loyalist | 3.0 or above | 2.5 or above | Below 4.0 | Gradually building value and loyalty over time |
| Window Shopper | 3.0 or below | 3.0 or below | 3.0 or below | Exploring casually, unlikely to stay or spend much |
| Browser | 3.0 or below | 3.0 or below | 3.6 or above | Low engagement with elevated churn risk |
| Neutral Zone | Any | Any | Any | Catch-all for subscribers who do not meet any of the above conditions. Represents the statistical center. |
A Few Things Worth Knowing
- Scores are relative, not absolute. Percentile thresholds (p20, p40, p60, p80) are calculated against your own subscriber base. A score of 5 on CLTR means the subscriber is in the top 20% of that publisher's revenue distribution - not an absolute revenue figure.
- Vulnerability overrides value. A subscriber can have a very high Value Score but still land in Vulnerable VIP rather than Champion if their Vulnerability Score exceeds 3.0. The segment logic prioritizes risk signals when value is high.
- Cancellation is a strong signal. A pending cancellation (subscription canceled but not yet expired) set the vulnerability to 5, which will push every subscriber into a high-vulnerability segment regardless of their other scores.
- Segment order matters. Conditions are evaluated top to bottom. A subscriber who meets the criteria for both Champion and Vulnerable VIP will be assigned Vulnerable VIP because that condition is evaluated first in the logic.
- Churned subscribers score 0. Most sub-score components return 0 for churned subscribers. This means all three scores collapse to 0 for churned subscribers, and they are caught by the Hibernating or Churned conditions before the active-subscriber logic runs.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is a high-spending subscriber labeled Vulnerable VIP instead of Champion?
Vulnerability takes priority over Value in the segment logic. If a subscriber's Vulnerability Score exceeds 3.0 - whether due to an approaching renewal, a short subscription lifetime, or a pending cancellation - they will be assigned Vulnerable VIP regardless of how high their Value or Commitment scores are. A pending cancellation is the strongest signal: it sets the Vulnerability Score to 5 automatically, which will override almost any other combination of scores.
Why did my subscriber's segment change without me making any changes?
Segments update continuously as subscriber behavior changes, and scores are relative to your entire subscriber base - not fixed thresholds. If your subscriber base grows or shifts, the percentile distribution changes, which can move individual scores and therefore segments. A subscriber can also move between segments as their own renewal date approaches, their subscription matures, or their transaction history builds up.
Why does a subscriber who previously churned score higher on Commitment than one who never has?
This is intentional. A subscriber who churned and chose to resubscribe has demonstrated active re-commitment to your service. The Commitment Score treats this as a stronger loyalty signal than passive continuous subscription. A subscriber who has never churned scores 2.5 on the churn history component; one who has churned and returned scores 5.
What is the difference between Churned and Hibernating?
Both labels apply to subscribers with no active subscriptions. The distinction is time - subscribers who churned within the last 90 days are labeled Churned, while those who churned more than 90 days ago are labeled Hibernating. Neither group appears in the main Segments dashboard, which focuses on active subscribers only.
What does Neutral Zone mean - is there a data problem with this subscriber?
No. Neutral Zone is a catch-all for subscribers who do not meet the specific score conditions of any named segment. It typically represents the statistical middle of your base - subscribers with average scores across Value, Commitment, and Vulnerability who do not lean strongly in any direction. It is not an error state.